2018 Notre Dame Football vs. 2012 Irish: Who wins?

In the NCAA’s eyes, the 2012 Notre Dame football season doesn’t exist.

There’s a worn-out punchline lurking in there somewhere, but the 12 vacated victories and the one vacated 28-point beatdown from Alabama in the BCS National Championship Game — as a consequence of ND’s 2014 academic scandal — are real and mostly spectacular when it comes to the rest of the college football world.

But how real and how spectacular? Using the current 12-0 season as a measuring stick, let’s explore which team — 2012 or 2018 — was better within the context of its own season, and which would win in a timeless battle against each other.

Personnel

The 2012 group definitely had more star power. Linebacker Manti Te’o is the most decorated defensive player in college football history, winning the Maxwell, Lott, Bednarik, Nagurski, Butkus, Lombardi and Walter camp awards, and finishing second to Johnny Manziel in the Heisman Trophy race.

Four players made at least third-team AP All-America in 2012 — Te’o, tight end Tyler Eifert, defensive end Stephon Tuitt and center Braxston Cave. A fifth, left tackle Zack Martin, was a Walter Camp second-team All-American.

Realistically, the 2018 team’s contingent will top out at three, if that — cornerback Julian Love, linebacker Te’von Coney and defensive tackle Jerry Tillery being the top candidates.

When you break it down by position group, the 2012 team has the edge at tight end, running back, edge defenders and interior defensive line, but not a wide gap in any of those spots, especially if you consider quality depth.

The 2018 team checks the boxes at QB, wide receiver and cornerback — and by lopsided margins. It also holds the upper hand at safety, special teams and yes, linebacker — even with Te’o on the ’12 team. He didn’t have the sidekick in Drue Tranquill that Coney has. Offensive line is a push.

• Advantage: 2018.

Metrics

Looking at the nine major offensive statistical categories (using national rankings rather than averages), the 2018 team holds the advantage in five of them, and decidedly so in total offense and scoring offense.

The 2012 team gets the edge in six of the nine defensive statistics, including significant margins in total defense and scoring defense. In special teams/turnover margin, 2018 gets four of the six wins there.

Overall, it’s 13 advantages for 2018 and 12 for 2012. However, there are five key metrics that championship teams tend to excel in — rush offense, pass efficiency, rush defense, total defense and turnover margin.

With a top 35 ranking in each category being the desired threshold for success, the 2018 team meets that in all but rushing offense (50th). The 2012 team falls short in rushing offense (38th) and pass efficiency (74th).

In fact, the pass-efficiency ranking of 74th is the worst mark ever among the 40 teams that have played for a national title in the BCS/Playoff Era, and by a large margin. Nebraska, the 2001 runner-up, has the next worst, at No. 43.

By computer models, though, 2012 played the tougher schedule, and the 2012 Irish were No. 1 in the AP poll at the regular season’s end. The 2018 team has been holding at No. 3 for more than a month.

• Advantage: Push.

Eye Test

Those in the national media who have seen both teams play say the 2018 team is better, because it’s more balanced, it’s deeper, it is capable of stretches of dominance. The quarterback difference — Ian Book vs. Everett Golson — is chasmic.

The one-sided loss to Alabama in the title game is difficult to extract from the formula. The defenses play very different styles, but styles that benefited them in those seasons.

It’s clear that the 2018 Irish are deeper, and not just on the defensive line. The assistant coaching staff, the strength staff are both better — even head coach Brian Kelly is a better version of himself in 2018.

• Advantage: 2018.

Intangibles

One of the most telling intangibles is being SEC-tested. When Notre Dame faced Alabama for a national title at the end of the 2012 season, the Irish hadn’t played an SEC team in six seasons (a 41-14 Sugar Bowl loss to LSU) or in the regular season since 2005 (a 41-21 home win over Tennessee).

Jack Swarbrick got proactive after 2012 and started to add SEC teams to the regular-season future schedules, and the Irish started to catch them in bowl games.

The 2014 team met and beat LSU in the Music City Bowl (31-28), then played two SEC teams last season, losing to eventual NCAA runner-up Georgia by a point (20-19) and rallying past LSU 21-17 in the Citrus Bowl.

The Irish also played eventual playoff teams from the ACC on the road in 2014 (Florida State) and 2015 (Clemson) falling short in the closing moments of both games. Vanderbilt gave ND an SEC look this season, albeit not an elite one.

Above all that, even Kelly would say that the parts of the 2012 team may shine individually brighter, but the parts of the 2018 team fit together bette

• Projected final score: 2018 Irish 23, 2012 Irish 14.